The drive for silicon

Safety and entertainment rev up new chip opportunities

Text by Bernard Levine • Illustrations by Charles Mackey -- Electronic Business, 11/1/2003

If there's a light at the end of the downturn's tunnel, it's mobile computing. Not necessarily wireless networking, mind you, but rather the proliferation of electronics in automobiles.

Research firm Allied Business Intelligence predicts that the world automotive semiconductor market will grow to more than $17 billion a year by 2007, up from $12.3 billion last year—and because the 2007 models are already more than gleams in their designers' eyes, that's a pretty safe prediction. Strategy Analytics, another research firm, offers an equally positive view: Electronic systems account for more than 20 percent of a typical car's cost today, but that figure will jump to more than 30 percent by 2008.

In the following pages, we graphically show you where these new electronics will appear. On the safety side, stand by for smarter airbags, radar, cameras, adaptive cruise control, tire pressure monitoring and other accident avoidance gear. You can also expect a new onslaught of telematics: digital radios, hands-free cellular phones and other wireless connectivity, and biometric access. Even black boxes—the counterpart of those on aircraft for determining the cause of an accident—are on the horizon.

Certainly, many of the safety, convenience, entertainment and information options in development today have been talked about for years but have appeared only in high-end luxury and sports cars, if at all. Now, because of diminishing costs and increasing integration, they're moving into high-volume production. Hence the increase in both content and the market.

Semiconductor companies are combining microcontrollers and DSP and other capabilities on single chips as well as integrating more passive-component functions into silicon. Along with these hybrid ICs, we'll also see greater use of software. Flash and other nonvolatile memory will allow carmakers to reprogram code up to the last minute cars are on the production line and make changes later when they are brought in for service. Experts expect that increased electronic circuitry will make conventional engines cleaner and more efficient along the way.

Consumers have the final say about what they'll pay for, of course. But there's one clear rule of the road: When costs go down, acceptance goes up.

Bernard Levine ( blevine777@msn.com) formerly covered automotive systems for Electronic News.

Safety

The Analyst View All these safety systems depend on advanced ICs, often containing embedded flash memory, being added wherever possible to aid flexibility and performance through easy programmability. "More embedded flash will allow more functionality and more sophisticated software," says Tony Massimini, of Semico Research Corp. "We need more refining of the software and more power out of the processors," adds Mark Fitzgerald, of Strategy Analytics .

1. Tire pressure monitoring is the next big focus for accident avoidance, spurred by the Firestone/Ford rollover tragedies. Two monitoring techniques are being considered. One requires new semiconductors, including a dedicated microcontroller, on each tire rim to measure pressure and temperature. They pas s the information through RF transmitters and receivers to activate a dashboard warning light if necessary. Another system would rely on minor software modifications of the current antilock brake system to track whether tires were safe, based on their rotation speed (this method can be compromised if more than one tire is underinflated or the vehicle is riding on uneven surfaces or has an uneven load.)

2. Smarter airbag systems will adjust the deployment of airbags based on the weight of occupants and accident conditions. These require intelligent sensors, which will both integrate analog and digital functions (such as voltage regulation) into one ASIC and replace passives such as relays and fuses. Internal energy storage, capacitors, condensers and other components will keep airbags working even if they lose contact with the rest of the car's electrical system in a crash.

3. Accident prevention systems include adaptive cruise control and radar, designed to spot collision threats and take evasive action. Night vision equipment similar to what the military uses, projected on the windshield, improves visibility after dark, giving drivers more time to react to possible dangers. Onboard cameras will transmit information about obstacles in drivers' blind spots to help them avoid accidents. The cameras' view will be transmitted through either an onboard network or transmitters to a display on the dashboard.

What's Ahead To ensure compatibility of electronics-related components, the Safe-by-Wire industry consortium is developing a standard automotive bus that controls sensors and restraint devices .

Engines and Drivetrains

What's Ahead The industry needs to iron out the competing FlexRay and TTP communications protocols crucial for drive-by-wire implementations. These systems will replace mechanical functions controlled by the driver with electronic functions controlled by the car, so a highly reliable, time-critical bus architecture is indispensable .

1. Increased power demands may eventually mandate that 42-volt electrical systems reduce the amount of current and cabling in today's standard 12V systems. But electronics vendors contend that the latter, with modification, can stay on the road well into the future by substituting ICs for traditional relays and switches. Carmakers are also turning to 12V alternators that use MOSFETs instead of diodes to generate more power, up to 3 kilowatts. Even if drive-by-wire systems eventually demand 42V, other automotive features such as headlamps can't run on that high a voltage (the headlamp filaments are too fragile). Dual hybrid 12V/42V capabilities in every car, including two batteries, may be necessary.

2. Smoother-running engines will rely on new analog ICs to monitor engines' peak performance; beyond that point, engines may begin to knock or misfire. More of that monitoring will be done in software, so expect to see powertrain microcontrollers from vendors such as Motorola that incorporate more software and flash memory. DSP processors will track variable valve timing and thus reduce the need for some ASICs. Microprocessors will increasingly control the synchronization of the fuel injection process, especially in diesel engines, to make them cleaner and quieter.

3. Drive-by-wire systems will replace current steering, braking and other hydraulic or mechanical systems with electronic systems (just as Boeing has done in the 777), although there's no firm timetable. Some drive-by-wire efforts already appearing involve the throttle and the brakes, with sensors designed to shorten stopping distance by detecting rapid lifting of the throttle and moving brake pads against the discs. They can also detect when the driver applies excessive brake pressure and trigger even more braking power.

The Analyst View Electrical loads have been increasing about 100 watts per year for the past several years and are projected to continue at this rate for the next decade," says analyst Randy Frank, who heads his own research firm. The cost associated with the transition to 42V—and manufacturers' inability to see direct customer benefits—has motivated most of them to delay this expense as long as possible through the application of cost-effective alternatives, he notes. These alternatives include electric water pumps and electric superchargers that utilize power MOSFETs and other components that interface with the 12V vehicle bus more efficiently .

Entertainment and Biometrics

1. Black boxes—the automotive counterpart of the recorders used to discover the causes of airplane crashes—are gaining popularity with fleet owners, because deployment can decrease insurance rates. About twice the size of a cell phone, the devices can regularly transmit data to document mileage and general driving patterns as well as record statistics such as speed and velocity prior to an accident. For this, they need standard microprocessors and memory, and GSM and GPS circuitry can transmit alerts in case of an accident or continually compile travel data. Several IC makers already offer prepackaged radio-communications modules for the boxes, which may eventually enable applications for lease management, pay-as-you-drive insurance and automated toll collection.

2. Digital radios, in addition to receiving stations more clearly, also offer telematics and navigation options. Semiconductor firms such as Philips Electronics are working on circuits to support various digital broadcast standards, as are many IC firms. Manipulating radio signals digitally requires enhanced software as well as changes to the ICs that interface between the tuner and the amplifier. As a result, vendors are researching smart power devices that will integrate control logic, a small microprocessor and a power switch on the same die.

3. Navigation systems will become more common as prices come down from several thousand dollars to several hundred dollars. Vendors such as Motorola and Analog Devices are combining DSP, flash and microcontroller functions in a single core to reduce the cost. The goal is to create a single processor where six different chips might be necessary today. With the addition of flash memory, technicians could upgrade the software with downloads.

4. Voice-activated controls may control almost anything inside the car, from temperature to mirrors to cell phones, and many IC firms are working on telematics circuitry with speech recognition capabilities. But background noise from the road, radio and conversations in the vehicle hamper development.

5. Biometric ignition Semiconductor firms have teamed with software vendors to develop secure and cost-effective fingerprint recognition for opening cars and starting the engine. STMicroelectronics' TouchChip biometric solutions can be integrated into locks or key chains. Biometric systems utilizing this chip recognize the drivers' thumbprints; open the car; and automatically adjust seats, mirrors and the radio to their preferences.

The Analyst View In the near term, predicts Ken Fleck, of Fleck Research, there will be a convergence of navigation systems, Internet connections and entertainment systems, perhaps using Bluetooth connectivity. Although the first wave of Bluetooth automotive devices focuses on telephony, other applications will soon follow, predicts Frank Viquez, of Allied Business Intelligence, including remote vehicle diagnostics, telematics services, vehicle-to-vehicle communications and remote audio and video downloads .